Inside the chilly convention center, Walmart created a replica of one of its Supercenter stores, transforming the space into calculated chaos. In late August in Orlando, Florida, the retailer had flown in thousands of workers eager to take it all in.
Dozens of lit-up Christmas trees and vibrant poinsettias adorned the space, alongside rows of Halloween candy and racks filled with knit dresses and cozy sweaters. A Minnie Mouse mascot danced in the toy section while inflatable ghosts and foxes bobbed above inflatable jack-o’-lanterns in a pumpkin patch. As they explored, Walmart workers savored samples of pulled pork, chips, Oreo cookies, and ice cream.
A candy cane door frame welcomed attendees into the North Pole, marking the entrance to Walmart’s annual business meeting for the holiday shopping season.
On that sweltering day, the nation’s largest retailer aimed to set a festive mood for holidays still months away. However, the primary focus for the 6,700 attendees revolved around Walmart’s upcoming fall and winter events.
Beyond the celebratory atmosphere, the holiday season carried significant stakes. It represented the busiest quarter of the year for most retailers, and Walmart’s preparations offered valuable insights into consumer behavior and the broader retail landscape.
The National Retail Federation projected that holiday sales would increase at a slower pace this year compared to last. This estimate, however, only covered November and December. The holiday season now extends beyond Thanksgiving and Christmas purchases to include sales for football tailgating and Halloween.
Jen Acerra, who leads Walmart’s consumer insights and strategy team, helps the company understand how shoppers will likely feel throughout the fall and winter. She noted that last year, Walmart observed shoppers starting their holiday shopping “with gusto” ahead of Halloween.
“We’re embracing it,” she stated.
That shift has forced Walmart and many other retailers to consider what customers are willing to purchase over a longer timeline. Figuring out what shoppers want this year proves challenging. Economists and retail analysts note that consumer apprehension looms over holiday spending prospects, compounded early on by uncertainty about the election. Retailers also highlight that this year has five fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
“It’s just going to put a lot more pressure on the holiday season,” said Kate McShane, managing director at Goldman Sachs, who tracks major retailers.
However, if done correctly, a holiday quarter that attracts customers to a company’s stores and e-commerce channels can bode well for the entire year ahead.
“If a customer enjoys a great holiday experience and finds the hot toy at similar prices to last year, or feels like they saved a few bucks, that will cement their loyalty,” said David Silverman, a retail analyst at Fitch Ratings.
So far, Walmart executives remain optimistic as they continue to increase sales this year, while department store chains like Macy’s and Kohl’s report that their customers have pulled back. Walmart attributes its recent success—U.S. sales rose 4.2 percent in the second quarter compared to last year—to its commitment to “everyday low prices” and conveniences like faster shipping.
“Sentiment affects what we do,” said John Furner, CEO of Walmart’s U.S. business. “Even if sentiment shifts, some people feel very good while others do not. So we focus on what we can control—customer service, hiring, and execution.”
Inside the south concourse of the Orlando convention center, Furner navigated the makeshift store, passing signs promoting Black Friday deals, a giant shopping cart display, and a bank of checkout registers.
Having worked for Walmart for 31 years, Furner highlighted how seasonal merchandise, like Christmas trees, has evolved to appeal to millennial and Gen Z shoppers. The store now features more red and white artificial trees and pink Christmas décor. Store managers frequently stopped him for photographs and updates about back-to-school sales.
These managers, he emphasized, play a crucial role in ensuring Walmart finishes the year with strong sales.
In the morning, Furner and other top executives delivered presentations, reminding store managers of their significance and outlining their goals. The speakers emphasized that the company implemented 7,200 rollbacks—its term for discounts—in the second quarter, exceeding the number from the previous year. This year, in the third and fourth quarters, Walmart plans to offer “close to 25 percent more” rollbacks in the toy department compared to last year.
Items typically purchased for Thanksgiving dinner will cost about 3 percent less than the previous year. Additionally, turkeys will come pre-priced, saving workers time on weighing each bird and preventing customers from waiting for price checks.
Managers are expected to share their insights with their teams—those slicing meat in the deli, restocking shelves, and collecting carts in the parking lot.
Latriece Watkins, Walmart’s chief merchandising officer, described how various parts of the business need to collaborate harmoniously, like a well-coordinated band. Her audience included not just store managers, but also employees from Walmart’s supply chain, e-commerce operation, and international division.
“We all know that the holidays and the latter half of the year are our time to win,” Watkins said.
After the speeches, executives including Mr. Furner and Cedric Clark, executive vice president of store operations, participated in question-and-answer sessions about recent technology and supply chain updates. They also addressed concerns, such as when stores could expect shipments of seasonal merchandise.
“We have a healthy anxiety,” Mr. Clark stated. “When things go well, we step back and ask ourselves, what else can we look at?”
Walmart places significant emphasis on toys as a major gift-giving category. To keep prices low, Mr. Furner explained, Walmart’s merchants must select items that customers will buy at full price, avoiding excessive markdowns.
“Managing these buys a year in advance is both science and art,” he said while standing near the toy aisle in the mock Supercenter. “You have to predict where you think the customer will land, and then you’ve got innovation. You place your bet, and then we hold our breath for about six months. We’re right in the middle of that breath-holding period now.”
For Brittany Smith, a 20-year Walmart veteran and vice president of merchandising for toys, the selection of featured Christmas toys begins in January. This year, the retailer highlights a collection of products under $25, recognizing that many families are feeling financial pressure.
“We anticipate inflation and tough times, so we need to lean into our core value of offering everyday low prices,” Ms. Smith said.
Near Ms. Smith’s toy display, managers stopped by to photograph planograms—the diagrams showing where products should be placed in the store. She noted that some had already requested more units of specific toys, expecting them to be popular.
Ms. Acerra and her consumer insights team have mapped out shoppers’ mindsets for each week of the holiday selling period. Around mid-October, shoppers begin seeking early deals. Near Thanksgiving, they experience stress preparing for family gatherings. Then comes Black Friday, marking the frantic push to the finish line.
“There’s also a bit of dread,” Ms. Acerra observed. “Shoppers dread the long lines to get the products they want, or the stress of trying to find what they need with limited time. There are ups and downs, and we need to be ready for however customers show up—whether they visit our stores, interact with our associates, or shop online.”
Rezarta Mucka, 37, oversees 586 employees as a store manager in Teterboro, N.J. She described the information from Orlando as more of a refresher than groundbreaking news. Still, she found it valuable to attend and connect with peers, especially those she had mentored who now manage other stores during their first holiday season.
Seasonal merchandise plays a crucial role at her store, creating anticipation among shoppers that could positively impact sales.
“Once customers see the transitions happen before the holidays, they want to come in more often,” Ms. Mucka, a 16-year Walmart veteran, said. “They want to see what we’ll have for the holidays and be ready when the season arrives.”
